Products   |   Partners   |   About Telecompetition   |   Customers   |   Contact Us   

 

 

Methodology Detail

System Input

Methodology & System

Ativa Research Tools

Illustrations

Process and Methods

TRAFFICast

Conversion

 

Process & Methodology 

As a first step in creating the output shown in Tables I and II, a national forecast is derived and input into the database:

Secondly, allocation fractions are then calculated and applied to the national forecast – consistency with the national forecast is maintained at all times so that there can be no "double counting" that would result in the combined total of all counties exceeding the total national number.

Workforce Population Volume

The first factor in the allocation fraction is workforce population by occupation statistics for Colorado and its counties. The volume of workforce population explains why El Paso County ranks second in revenue potential for ISDN. While third in total population, El Paso County has the second highest workforce population in Colorado.

 

Table IV 

Source: Telecompetition® using ativa.gif (499 bytes)

After workforce population volumes, ativa.gif (499 bytes) further refine the forecast. As can be seen in Table VI, in every county the potential revenue calculated on the basis of workforce population volume alone differs from the projections provided by ativa.gif (499 bytes).

Table V

 These differences are a result of ativa.gif (499 bytes) more sophisticated modeling of buying propensity differences among different occupations, age and income categories and geographic areas. ativa.gif (499 bytes) weights population volume data and incorporates a variety of weighting coefficients that reflect the qualitative factors only an experienced industry analyst can effectively assess.

Propensity-to-Buy by Occupation

The next factors used by ativa.gif (499 bytes) are product-specific and occupation-specific propensity-to-buy profiles. These profiles are then used to weight workforce population statistics for each occupation.

So in the case of El Paso county, not only does it have a larger workforce population than most of the Denver metro area counties, but it also has one of the highest percentages of those occupations considered high usage occupations.

Other geographic specific factors are also applied as required to more fully consider the opportunity potential. These factors include vertical industry, adoption / substitution rate, establishment size, general economic health, service availability and other demographic and psychographic variables.

So what about the lowest revenue potential areas…when would this information be useful? For the network planner discussed at the beginning of this article, the forecast provided by Telecompetition® would show that there are some areas where it is not cost effective to deploy certain technologies. Where an ISDN card alone costs over $1500, a county with only $10-20,000 in revenue potential will likely never justify the capital investment.

Standard or custom data files and reports are available.  Call today for pricing.

Healy & Co

2410 Camino Ramon,

Suite 359

San Ramon, CA 94583

USA

 

Tel: (925) 543-5701
Fax: (925) 543-5720

 

info@telecompetition.com

 

Copyright © 2008 Healy & Co