Process & Methodology
As a first step in creating the output shown in Tables I and II, a national forecast is
derived and input into the database:
Secondly, allocation fractions are then calculated and applied to the national forecast
consistency with the national forecast is maintained at all times so that there can
be no "double counting" that would result in the combined total of all counties
exceeding the total national number.
Workforce Population Volume
The first factor in the allocation fraction is workforce population by occupation
statistics for Colorado and its counties. The volume of workforce population explains why
El Paso County ranks second in revenue potential for ISDN. While third in total
population, El Paso County has the second highest workforce population in Colorado.
| Table IV |
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Source: Telecompetition® using
After workforce population volumes, further refine the forecast. As can be seen in
Table VI, in every county the potential revenue calculated on the basis of workforce
population volume alone differs from the projections provided by .
Table V
These differences are a result of more sophisticated modeling of buying
propensity differences among different occupations, age and income categories and
geographic areas. weights population volume data and incorporates a variety of weighting
coefficients that reflect the qualitative factors only an experienced industry analyst can
effectively assess.
Propensity-to-Buy by Occupation
The next factors used by are product-specific and occupation-specific
propensity-to-buy profiles. These profiles are then used to weight workforce population
statistics for each occupation.

So in the case of El Paso county, not only does it have a larger workforce population
than most of the Denver metro area counties, but it also has one of the highest
percentages of those occupations considered high usage occupations.

Other geographic specific factors are also applied as required to more fully consider
the opportunity potential. These factors include vertical industry, adoption /
substitution rate, establishment size, general economic health, service availability and
other demographic and psychographic variables.
So what about the lowest revenue potential areas
when would this information be
useful? For the network planner discussed at the beginning of this article, the forecast
provided by Telecompetition® would show that there are some areas where it is not
cost effective to deploy certain technologies. Where an ISDN card alone costs over $1500,
a county with only $10-20,000 in revenue potential will likely never justify the capital
investment.
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